Sunday 28 November 2010

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future

”Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”

--Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

”I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.’

--Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

”I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”

--The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

”But what ... is it good for?”

--Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

”There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

--Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.,1977

”This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

--Western Union internal memo, 1876.

”The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value.Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?”

--David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

”Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”

--H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

”I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.”

Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in “Gone With The Wind.”

”We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.’

--Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

”Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”

--Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

”Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.”

--Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

”Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.”

--Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

”Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

--Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899.

”Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.”

--Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

”The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.”

--Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.

And a classic quote from “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”

- Bill Gates 1987


Md Santo said...

• Prediction (based on scientific mind set) is difficult, especially about the future (caused by high complexity).
• Probability-based prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
• Possibility-based prediction will lowering the difficulty, especially about the future.
• Gnosis, Intuition, Feeling, Reverse Engineering and Evidence-based prediction are “lowering difficulty agents”, especially to predict the future

Visit “Knowledge is the edge of Science”

Md Santo -

Suresh Nair said...

I liked these three predictions:
”Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”

”There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

”Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

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